Different strategies you should know for your next soccer bet

Here we present the “professional single bets” strategy, which requires a lot of work and training to play successfully, but can be very profitable if you master it well. Specifically, it's about successfully selecting soccer tips like a pro. These tips and strategies you can use the next time you are about the Football betting at Kenya.

Here's a value strategy. Find a good source that also provides you with the percentage probability distribution based on statistics. This is often not easy. So you need to do your research in this regard. Gather a lot of information from different sources. Evaluate which one you can trust.

Then take the current odds from the bookmaker with the best odds.

Next, compare the statistical percentages with the current odds. You can easily convert odds into percentages or vice versa by dividing 1/odds or 1/percentages.

Example: Hannover Kaiserslautern 66 20 14 Winning odds at Bet365, for example, are 1.83 for Hannover 1 : 1.83 = 0.546 –> approx. 55% Makes a difference of 66% – 55% = 11%

This 11% is used according to the Kelly strategy. The Kelly bet is: budget (e.g., $500) multiplied by 1/10th of the estimate (here 11%, i.e., 0.11) divided by the odds minus 1 (here 1.83 – 1 = 0.83)

In our game, this is 55 divided by 0.83 = $66.26 stake

The Kelly strategy has the advantage that stakes are calculated based on probability and the currently available betting balance.

This strategy is therefore about determining the optimal stake once the desired bet has been found using statistical data.

Expected winnings of the “professional bettor with single bets” strategy

If you have a good eye, you can keep working your way up until you reach stakes that would have been difficult to imagine beforehand. Only true professionals manage to increase their bankroll significantly. As always, you need a keen instinct. You can only get that with a lot of hard work and a certain amount of talent.

I bet on soccer games because soccer betting is the best place to apply strategy due to the large number of events. The system works as follows:

1. Always look for seven similar games from the schedule that immediately catch your eye. I tend to focus on favorites, but everyone has their own strategy.

Note: Even with the same odds, the probability of occurrence does not always have to be the same. Otherwise, all bets would ultimately be equally good or bad. This will be confirmed in the following analysis.

2. Analyze each game individually. This includes the last games played by the home and away teams. The following four questions form the basis:

• a) Does the favorite play well (consistently), or sometimes well and sometimes poorly?
• b) Analyze the opposing team in the same way!
• c) Take notes! Use a plus sign if the favorite is clearly better and a minus sign if the teams are less clearly different in terms of performance.
• d) Cross out the matches marked with a minus sign and compare the others more closely.

Selecting soccer tips like a pro: a few tips

Main criteria for selecting a game

• Is the team under pressure to perform? How high is their motivation?
• What figures does the analysis of expected goals (xG) in past games against similar opponents reveal?
• Are possible player absences conceivably overrepresented in individual odds (too clearly priced in)?
• How does the favorite behave when in the lead (managing the game/pushing for a second goal)?
• How far apart are the opposing teams in the table?
• Is the game likely to take place in the rain? This question is important because games on poor turf are more unpredictable/technical advantages cannot be exploited.
• Are any key players injured? If the opposing team has injured key players, this should also be considered an advantage.
• Does the team frequently change players from game to game? If this point can also be clarified, then further conclusions can be drawn -> strong bench?
• Team psychology: Is there uncertainty about a possible change of coach? Does the team work well together, or is it divided?

All of these factors are important. Thanks to social media, websites, and more, there should be a wealth of information available for virtually every game these days. The information gathered must then be analyzed. The most promising favorite is selected from the seven selected matches using the methods described above.

Another key analysis criterion for betting professionals is to question whether the patterns of a match that are discussed in depth in the media are possibly priced too heavily into the odds (e.g., increased motivation of a team, the suspension of a player, or a flawless home record).